statistics

     This week I performed some mathematical analysis, in addition to which I showed the harm and addictive nature that gambling brings. Betting on soccer is inherently exciting and exhilarating, and participants often experience an irresistible sense of tension and pleasure in gambling. This sense of excitement can release large amounts of dopamine, leading to a strong sense of satisfaction, leading to the pursuit of more betting behavior. Over time, people will gradually lose their rational perception of risks and consequences, forming a strong psychological dependence from which they cannot extricate themselves.      Secondly, betting on soccer is a kind of gambling, which can cause huge economic losses to individuals and families. Betting on soccer is a high-risk investment behavior, and participants are often attracted by the possibility of making profits, but in fact, most people will eventually lose their money. The increased stakes and frequenc...

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Still Some Math…… What is the pumping logic of the lottery company? This is beneficial to understand how this machine works. Simply put, what is needed to take a chance in the football lottery and achieve long-term success is to be able to identify bets with positive expectations -- bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. So your goal is not to win every bet, but to make decisions that have positive expectations. As an example, for today's AC Milan v Roma match, one company's odds are now 1.87, 3.40, 4.20. We can calculate the implied probability of winning, drawing and losing is 53.48% respectively 29.41% 23.81%. At this time, we will find that the three probability and 53.48%+29.41%+23.81%=106.7% , HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE？ It is actually more than 100%. The 6.7 per cent extra is actually the lottery company's pumping (aka "margin"). That means the lottery company has a theory of 6.7 percent on the odds Commission pumping. So if we take tha...

 Conclusion 1: Our understanding of football is to our disadvantage?  In fact, the percentage of fans in the trading department of any lottery company is very small, which itself shows that sports knowledge and the ability to think about sports probabilistically are actually unrelated. On the contrary, fan groups tend to distort their judgments and decisions based on preconceived notions . Of course, this is not to say that knowledge accumulation is useless, but it can be beneficial if used correctly. Take myself as an example, I often choose blindly because I believe in my home team too much（Argentina and Chelsea）, without any rational analysis during this period. In fact, the success of soccer sports is more dependent on precise mathematical models and experience, the knowledge of football itself can be misleading in many cases. While there are a few people who can make steady money from soccer, the job, or the profession itself, is very difficult for the vast majority of pe...

 Section/Factor 2  Profit and loss index analysis Both profit and loss and Kelly Index are based on the analysis of the proportion of the public trading , to analyze the profit model of each large institution. Compared with the latter, the former gives stronger and more direct feedback to the profit situation of the institution. The process of calculating the profit index is actually the process of the cost accounting of the institution. I. Important parameters of profit and loss analysis This parameter is the proportion of public transactions of win, draw and lose results. According to this important parameter, the calculation formula of profit and loss index analysis can be solved. Ii. Profit and Loss index calculation formula The calculation formula of profit and loss index is actually a copy of the financial accounting model of most organizations. The specific formula is as follows: For example, 20100504 (This is the date of game) Wolfsburg vs. Hoffenheim (Background inf...

 Kelly's exponents According to commodity transaction formula: transaction quantity * transaction unit price = total transaction price. So let's look at the elements of the trade in the color industry, if we put water The level is compared to the trading price, and the number of bets investors make on the three levels of 3/1/0 is the trading volume. That is: number of bets * water level = total transaction value of bets. Then we can find through this formula, when we can grasp the betting volume of each major institution, we can know their trading value. However, we do not know the actual amount of trading bets made by each major institution, which is an absolute trade secret. Now there is a popular formula, which is based on publicly available data. That is: Let's say our principal is all 1 So Kelly's formula: Water level of Result 3 * Probability of Result 3 % *= Total compensation of Result 3 Result 1 Water level * Result 1 Probability %*- Organization reimburses Res...

  Gambling on soccer  can have a negative impact on an individual's health status.  Here is my first experience with gambling during the World Cup 2022.  Point 1: Betting on soccer can be very mentally taxing. My first bet was on the Japan vs. Germany game, and out of support for the Asian team and trust in the Japanese team, I earned close to seven times my winnings, or about $35 USD, with five US dollars capital. It made me feel like I might be able to make some money through this means of entertainment , after all it turned me from a neutral fan to a purposeful fan in many games and the game became exciting.  However the side effect starts to appear, I would become restless or anxious when a goal had not been scored during the game. I have also seen some players in some software/app cursing at the team and even insulting soccer because they lost money. This has deviated from my original intention of watching the game, however, at that time, I only thought ...

 Today I did some research on the key element of scientifically increasing the probability on soccer betting，even it is just a entertainment，which is not a reliable way on earning money. The first factor（or math formula）I study today is the Kelly Index ） 1. What is the Kelly Index ? The Kelley Index ，which dates back to the early 1960s, was proposed by an American physicist named John Kelley . The Kelly index was originally invented as a mathematical formula to help reduce noise interference in communications. But it came out and was used in a casino in Las Vegas. And made off with a lot of money. It's a magic formula that turns on its head the stereotypical gambler who loses nine out of ten bets. The Kelly formula is a betting strategy that maximizes the long-term growth rate of principal in an independent repeat bet or investment with a positive expected net return.  This formula can be used to calculate the proportion of money that should be wagered in each game.  Its...

The Harm of Betting However, betting on soccer is also gambling in a sense. I think the difference between betting and investing (stocks) is that the capital in betting can be lost instantly, while investing is more of a psychological game and understanding of information. There is still a certain amount of luck involved in betting on soccer and it is very difficult to make money off of it. Bookmakers and players have unequal information difference , and it is very difficult to analyze and predict success with personal power. I visited a colleague of my dad. He used to be a veteran gambler, but eventually gave up betting on football. I asked him about his experience. Here is his reply to me Chen Wei:My personal experience, admonishing friends who are still buying football, not betting on football is the real victory! I'm 30 years old, I've loved soccer since I was a kid, both playing and watching, I can say soccer is my biggest hobby, I used to watch soccer purely to watch th...

Do you make money if you always bet on the underdog in a game? Here's an article I read during the World Cup. If you bet on all matches with odds higher than 4 in the group stage, will you make money or not. Here is a statistical table covering all games with odds above 4 during the three group stage rounds of the World Cup.  第一轮=first round 第二轮=second round 第三轮=third round If we bet $10 on each match, then we can see that there were six matches that went cold. That means the underdogs beat the strongest teams, which includes the most famous Saudi Arabia over Argentina and Japan over Spain, among others.  So based on the ten dollars invested in each game, let's do a simple calculation to find out if we made a profit or a loss. All 6 games profit(Profit = ALL Gain- principle): 16.18*10+6.6*10+6.55*10+7*10+10.5*10+5.85*10-6*10= $525.8 Since there is 25 games, 25*10=$250 TOTAL profit in 25 games: 525.8-250=$265.8 265.8/250=106.32% GAIN If a single bet per game is 100$ for all 25 ...

   How to become a wise player in betting "World Cup semifinals, Brazil draw against Germany, Brazil 1 to 0.93, Germany 1 to 1.01."         These are the so-called "handicaps", or odds, of regular foreign bookmakers. Soccer commentators often use these odds to predict the likelihood of winning or losing a match. The team with the higher odds has a lower chance of winning, and vice versa. These odds are also considered by many fans to be highly accurate estimates of the outcome of a match. 　　If asked why, the argument given by fans is most likely that the bookmaker will lose money if the odds are set incorrectly, so in order to set the odds correctly, it is necessary to estimate the probability of winning or losing as accurately as possible. Some fans even believe that the bookies have a precise mathematical model to predict the winner of each game, which finely calculates the effects of player injuries, referees and even turf. Undefeated bookmaker...

 It was the first week of the senior project. On Monday, I took a flight of nearly fourteen hours, with a transfer in Hong Kong, and finally arrived in Shanghai. Many of my friends didn't understand why I had to go back in just two weeks, probably because I was homesick. I arrived in Shanghai on Tuesday, but then something unexpected happened. Probably because I was not used to a new place, I started to catch a cold, but fortunately I did not have a fever. However, this cold lasted from Wednesday morning until now and still hasn't healed ---- My birthday was also spent in piles and piles of napkins and cold medicine. During the week, I spent the first three days on some introductory type of things. Let's say the origins, origin and history of the lottery, etc. After that, I introduced some of the companies in the lottery and the formulas we can use in our daily predictions. It includes these four factors: Home Attacking Strength (HAS) = team's expected goals per home ga...

Today, I will start doing my own soccer betting prediction based on previous example and knowledges. The game that i wanna start with is AC Milan vs International Milan tomorrow in Champion League 1/4 Final This is a very important game. First of all, excluding the question of the strength of the team's players, we also have to consider whether the game is important and whether the team has the desire to win.  Because in some unimportant games, strong teams are likely to lose because they deliberately contact new lineups or calendar newcomers. For the home team Inter Milan: 1: Inter Milan beat Sassuolo at home in Serie A at the weekend.  The team was able to overtake as Lazio and AC Milan dropped points together, the team was able to overtake the former and move up to the 3rd position in the table, just 3 points behind Juventus. After beating Sassuolo, Inter Milan has won seven consecutive matches  and is on three fronts at the same time. The team has scored a total of ...

 The symptoms are still ongoing, making me not very comfortable.  Topic： Betting company profit limit-pinnacle and premium league What is your maximum single day profit limit at pinnacle?  Pinnacle: $250,000. In Pinnacle's rules, I find the following clause: The maximum cumulative winnings for a player in a day for multiple bets is $250,000 . The actual fact is that it is very difficult to come across this scenario, although there are restrictions. League1:Premium League The English Premier League is one of the largest soccer competitions in the world. It was founded in 1992 and has been growing ever since. Today, it is the most watched sports league in the world and brings in a staggering amount of revenue and attention, and drives the Premier League betting industry as it is broadcast in 212 territories with a potential audience of 4.7 billion people. In my off campus trip to Spain. 4/5 of the male students are frequent audience of premium league. my team is Chelsea, E...

 TODAY IS MY BIRTHDAY!!!!! Still severe symptoms today (Throat sore, cold etc...) Birthday isn't my lucky day😰 One thing to keep in mind is that even if the difference in odds you find gives you a boost of confidence, you are still unlikely to profit from soccer betting in the long term if the bookies are more accurate than you are. Of course, betting companies are not robots, and as long as they are human they will make mistakes. e let these mistakes often lead to unimaginably large losses. Next, I will list five of the biggest losses Pinnacle has experienced. 5. South Korea vs. Algeria - FIFA World Cup 2014 Algeria's win over South Korea during the 2014 FIFA World Cup is prominent on this list, as some may feel that there won't be many people betting on this match. However, we must remember that those who make money from betting don't necessarily bet on the hottest matches. They will go out and bet when they believe that the odds do not reflect the true probability ...

 I've had a cold and a sore throat for the last few days. I think it's because I just came to Shanghai and haven't adapted yet. To help explain the importance of pricing the soccer matches you want to bet on, we'll use a simple example to explain how to do so. It is important to note that this pricing method actually has a lot of holes in it and on its own will not help you find value in the soccer betting market. First, I used a Poisson model to create 1X2 odds for the final round of matches in the Premier League 2020/21 season. By using Infogol's expected goals scored data for that season, we can calculate the offensive strength and defensive strength of each team at home and on the road. By using the ratio of team averages to league averages, we can evaluate the team's ability to score and concede goals relatively. We do not use actual goals scored, but rather expected goals scored. This data provides a more accurate picture of team performance and reduces th...

       Today was a busy day. I went to see a friend in the morning and went to the gym. Then I went to get my hair cut in the afternoon and only had the evening free to do research for my senior project.      The first concept in betting is "handicapping", which is a form of soccer betting popular in Southeast Asia, Hong Kong and Macau. The artificial difference between a team and a team. The basic rule of the "handicap", or "handicap", offered by the betting company is "to reflect the difference by the score". It is important to remind players that the difference is not only in strength, but also in artificiality. In addition, the handicaps offered by the bookies are based on the results of 90 minutes of play, not counting overtime and penalties.      The most I remember winning was the game between Japan and Germany in the World Cup. The odds were given at 1.3:7, meaning that Japan would have seven times their capital if they won, due ...

       Today I am flying from HangKong to Shanghai, and will be settled there for the rest time of project. I did some simple research of the history of soccer lottery, since this is just a blog, I am not going to spend a lot of time to describe it here because I create a google slide and will do all of the analysis and research there. Here is a brief summary of the history of soccer lottery. It originated in Europe with the popularization of the sport and has a long history, with a wide variety of lotteries such as win-loss, goal, semi-full and single games. Unlike other digital lotteries, it has predictability, spectacle, and higher winning rate than other lottery games. Technical analysis of handicaps and odds and team information gathering are important means of winning. Worldwide, soccer lottery tickets are sold by legally registered betting companies or government gaming agencies. In China, soccer lottery started late and was launched on October 26, 2001, issu...

 Today is the first day of the senior project. Since my Canadian visa has expired, I plan to return to Shanghai. I'm writing this blog from Hong Kong, tired after 18 hours on the plane, but everything went well. Tomorrow I will return to Shanghai and officially start my senior project. On the plane, I first had a simple idea of this project. Because what I do is the football betting, the first thing I want to popularize is what is betting，or gamble.Although competitive lottery is very popular in the society, many of us as students have not come into contact with competitive lottery. I only encountered it occasionally with my friends at this year's World Cup. This week, I'm going to focus on "Where does the betting come from, how does the betting company work, how are the odds calculated and What is the mouth of the plate? The next week will be the beginning of concrete trials and statistics Hour：3