5/23 Blog


Still Some Math……

What is the pumping logic of the lottery company? This is beneficial to understand how this machine works.

Simply put, what is needed to take a chance in the football lottery and achieve long-term success is to be able to identify bets with positive expectations -- bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. So your goal is not to win every bet, but to make decisions that have positive expectations.

As an example, for today's AC Milan v Roma match, one company's odds are now 1.87, 3.40, 4.20.

We can calculate the implied probability of winning, drawing and losing is 53.48% respectively

29.41% 23.81%. At this time, we will find that the three probability and 53.48%+29.41%+23.81%=106.7%, HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE？

It is actually more than 100%. The 6.7 per cent extra is actually the lottery company's pumping (aka "margin"). That means the lottery company has a theory of 6.7 percent on the odds Commission pumping.

So if we take that out of the equation, we can figure out that the "true probability" of winning and losing the game, according to the lottery company, is 49.89%, 227.44%, 22.67%. At this time I think we should be able to bright color company is how to make money, such as you buy AC Milan win, he is equivalent to a value only "49.89%" of things, to sell you 53.48% of the price. That is the logic behind the pumping. This is easy to understand. For example, if I roll the dice with my advisor Bill, I say, "If I roll the dice an infinite number of times, I have a 55% chance of getting 2,3, or 6." But in reality, a 2/3/6 chance is only 3/6, which is 50%. I raised the 50 percent probability to 55 percent out of thin air to mislead Bill, which is the equivalent of the lottery's pumping logic.

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