5/16 BLOG

Do you make money if you always bet on the underdog in a game?

Here's an article I read during the World Cup. If you bet on all matches with odds higher than 4 in the group stage, will you make money or not.

Here is a statistical table covering all games with odds above 4 during the three group stage rounds of the World Cup. 

第一轮=first round 第二轮=second round 第三轮=third round

If we bet $10 on each match, then we can see that there were six matches that went cold. That means the underdogs beat the strongest teams, which includes the most famous Saudi Arabia over Argentina and Japan over Spain, among others. 

So based on the ten dollars invested in each game, let's do a simple calculation to find out if we made a profit or a loss.

All 6 games profit(Profit = ALL Gain- principle): 16.18*10+6.6*10+6.55*10+7*10+10.5*10+5.85*10-6*10= $525.8

Since there is 25 games, 25*10=$250

TOTAL profit in 25 games: 525.8-250=$265.8

265.8/250=106.32% GAIN

If a single bet per game is 100$ for all 25 games, then we could make 2658$ profit

CONCLUSION: If we keep buying the underdogs (at odds above 4) during the group stage of the World Cup, then we can make close to double our money. Its blowout rate is about 6/25, or 24%, meaning that one underdog beats a strong team in every 4 games

Second  Question: Are there any difference between the three rounds of group stage in 2022 world cup

As we can see in the graph,  the game underlined with yellow is the game that underdog beat strong team.

1 in the first round: Saudi Arabia vs Argentina

1 in the second round: Costa Rica vs Japan

4 in the third round: Australia vs Denmark         odds：6.55

                                  Japan vs Spain                                7

                                Cameroon vs Brazil                           5.5

                                 South Korea vs Portugal                   5.85


Round 1:

If we only sell the first round of underdog matches, each invested ten dollars, the cold Saudi Arabia team let us get 16.18 * 10 = ¥ 161.8, and then we subtract the principal, 161.8 - 10 * 11 = ¥ 50.8, 50.8 / 110 = 0.4618 = 46.18% profit

Round 2:

If we only sell the first round of underdog matches, each invested ten dollars, the cold Costa Rica team let us get 6.6 * 10 = ¥ 66.8, and then we subtract the principal, 66.8 - 10 * 6 = ¥ 6.8, 6.8/ 60 = 0.1133 = 11.333% profit


Round 3:

If we only sell the first round of underdog matches, each invested ten dollars, the ALL FOUR COLD TEAM could let us get $299, and then we subtract the principal, 299-80 = ¥ 219, 219/ 80 = 2.737 = 273.7% profit



   To sum up, the third round of the World Cup group stage is more suitable for buying underdogs. 
A total of four cold games, two of them for the battle for the exit quota: Australia vs Denmark and Japan vs Spain, Australia finally advanced to the last sixteen, their state is not bad, so the cold is understandable, Japan has beaten Germany before, although most people still do not support Japan in this game (Spain has a stronger lineup), but the victory over Spain is not very surprising. 

This is the first case, although the strong team is strong, the weak team is not in bad shape.

   The second scenario is that the strong team has already locked out of the lineup. 
Brazil won all of their previous two matches, as did Portugal. So this game can be relatively relaxed to play. Thus, Cameroon defeated Brazil and Portugal lost to South Korea. Therefore, betting not only depends on the strength on paper and the level of handicap, but also on the team's desire to win. 

If the team is already out of the line, then the coach is likely to rest the main players to avoid the risk of injury.

Total hour = 6

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