5/19 Blog

 Today I did some research on the key element of scientifically increasing the probability on soccer betting，even it is just a entertainment，which is not a reliable way on earning money.

The first factor（or math formula）I study today is the Kelly Index）

1. What is the Kelly Index?

The Kelley Index ，which dates back to the early 1960s, was proposed by an American physicist named John Kelley. The Kelly index was originally invented as a mathematical formula to help reduce noise interference in communications. But it came out and was used in a casino in Las Vegas. And made off with a lot of money. It's a magic formula that turns on its head the stereotypical gambler who loses nine out of ten bets. The Kelly formula is a betting strategy that maximizes the long-term growth rate of principal in an independent repeat bet or investment with a positive expected net return. 

This formula can be used to calculate the proportion of money that should be wagered in each game.

 Its original formula is f=[b*p-(1-p)]/b, where f is the proportion of bets, b is the profit and loss ratio, p is the win ratio, and 1-p is the probability of failure. 

Kelly's formula after reduced fraction is f=p-(1-p)/b. Kelly's formula, which includes gambling and investing, assumes that gambling or investing can be made an infinite number of times and that there is no upper or lower bet.

 Kelly's formula is famous in "Las Vegas" and "Wall Street", and many mathematical geniuses have carried it forward in casinos and investments with remarkable success.

So let's understand how this formula works. Kelly formula is a complex calculation formula for the occurrence probability of small time, in its application in the process of information transmission, can reduce the incidence of noise interference communication to zero!

When it is applied to the risk control and management of investment, it is also possible to minimize the risk probability of investors!

The result calculated by Kelly's formula is called "Kelly value". The probability of blowout in soccer matches is also extremely low, so when we apply Kelly formula to the game industry, because of its high accuracy to avoid risks, the concept of time Kelly value spreads extremely rapidly in the industry. Not only soccer, such as Vegas dog racing, horse racing, blackjack and other games have Kelly index application of silver, and in the number of lottery field also has a prominent position. 

Its application in soccer is mainly combined with the European compensation reference as the basis, can calculate the best owner in the case of given compensation, so as to make the code safe and rapid stable growth!


Total Hour：6

Research based on Zong Wang‘s article “Can soccer betting really earn money？”

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

5/21 Blog

Image
 Section/Factor 2  Profit and loss index analysis Both profit and loss and Kelly Index are based on the analysis of the proportion of the public trading , to analyze the profit model of each large institution. Compared with the latter, the former gives stronger and more direct feedback to the profit situation of the institution. The process of calculating the profit index is actually the process of the cost accounting of the institution. I. Important parameters of profit and loss analysis This parameter is the proportion of public transactions of win, draw and lose results. According to this important parameter, the calculation formula of profit and loss index analysis can be solved. Ii. Profit and Loss index calculation formula The calculation formula of profit and loss index is actually a copy of the financial accounting model of most organizations. The specific formula is as follows: For example, 20100504 (This is the date of game) Wolfsburg vs. Hoffenheim (Background info: Wolfsb
Read more

5/11 Blog

 I've had a cold and a sore throat for the last few days. I think it's because I just came to Shanghai and haven't adapted yet. To help explain the importance of pricing the soccer matches you want to bet on, we'll use a simple example to explain how to do so. It is important to note that this pricing method actually has a lot of holes in it and on its own will not help you find value in the soccer betting market. First, I used a Poisson model to create 1X2 odds for the final round of matches in the Premier League 2020/21 season. By using Infogol's expected goals scored data for that season, we can calculate the offensive strength and defensive strength of each team at home and on the road. By using the ratio of team averages to league averages, we can evaluate the team's ability to score and concede goals relatively. We do not use actual goals scored, but rather expected goals scored. This data provides a more accurate picture of team performance and reduces th
Read more

5/9 Blog Post

Image
       Today I am flying from HangKong to Shanghai, and will be settled there for the rest time of project. I did some simple research of the history of soccer lottery, since this is just a blog, I am not going to spend a lot of time to describe it here because I create a google slide and will do all of the analysis and research there. Here is a brief summary of the history of soccer lottery. It originated in Europe with the popularization of the sport and has a long history, with a wide variety of lotteries such as win-loss, goal, semi-full and single games. Unlike other digital lotteries, it has predictability, spectacle, and higher winning rate than other lottery games. Technical analysis of handicaps and odds and team information gathering are important means of winning. Worldwide, soccer lottery tickets are sold by legally registered betting companies or government gaming agencies. In China, soccer lottery started late and was launched on October 26, 2001, issued by the China Spo
Read more