5/20 Blog

 Kelly's exponents

According to commodity transaction formula: transaction quantity * transaction unit price = total transaction price. So let's look at the elements of the trade in the color industry, if we put water

The level is compared to the trading price, and the number of bets investors make on the three levels of 3/1/0 is the trading volume. That is: number of bets * water level = total transaction value of bets. Then we can find through this formula, when we can grasp the betting volume of each major institution, we can know their trading value. However, we do not know the actual amount of trading bets made by each major institution, which is an absolute trade secret. Now there is a popular formula, which is based on publicly available data. That is:

Let's say our principal is all 1

So Kelly's formula:

Water level of Result 3 * Probability of Result 3 % *= Total compensation of Result 3

Result 1 Water level * Result 1 Probability %*- Organization reimburses Result 1 total

Result 1 water level * Result 0 probability % *1= organization compensation result 0 total

It is not difficult to find through the formula that the calculation principle of the formula is to treat the probability of winning and losing the three results as the trading volume. There are also drawbacks. Although the three probabilities are probability indexes issued by institutions according to market conditions, the data cannot express the real flow of public funds in the market. And we should know that the disc loss itself may be inductive and deceptive, which is a kind of market performance of the organization in order to make profits and control risks. If the Kelly value is calculated completely according to the disc loss, it is easy to be induced by the deceptive information of the organization and be swayed by the thinking of the organization. It's also good for real players to see where the money is going. And many of the calculations are so close to the numbers given by various organizations that it's hard to tell. Here is an example:

Fa Cup Q: Manchester United 0-1 Leeds United

Standard water level

3/1/0

Ladbrokes: 1.256.0010.00

William: 1.226.00 12.00

310 probability

0.75 0.1562 0.0938

0.766 0.156 0.078

Kelly value

Although probability is a probability index issued by institutions according to market conditions, but this data can not express the real flow of public funds in the market. And we should know that the disc loss itself may be inductive and deceptive, which is a kind of market performance of the organization in order to make profits and control risks. If the Kelly value is calculated completely according to the disc loss, it is easy to be induced by the deceptive information of the organization and be swayed by the thinking of the organization. It's also good for real players to see where the money is going. And many of the calculations are so close to the numbers given by various organizations that it's hard to tell. Here is an example:

Example：

Fa Cup Q: Manchester United 0-1 Leeds United

Standard water level

3/1/0

Ladbrokes: 1.256.0010.00

William: 1.226.00 12.00

310 probability

0.75 0.1562 0.0938

0.766 0.156 0.078

Kelly's value is 3, 1, 0

0.94, 0.96, 0.80

0.92, 0.96, 0.96

The Kelly value data above are published by the precise calculation of the mechanism. 

The agency Ladbrokes Cowin ：0.80 and the agency William Hill ：0.96

Form a great difference, but also with the application of the calculation formula obtained by the actual value is not consistent. In the previous article we have seen that the constituent disk

One of the two factors of loss is the mass psychology t note probability, and here we are going to combine this factor with another factor: institutional probability

Analyze the combination and contrast, through some data propensity investigation

We can get an idea of the trading volume of triathlon results.

For example, in this case, the trading volume ratio of match result 3 is 80%, and match result 1

The proportion of trading volume is 12%, and the proportion of trading volume is 8%. This proportion is based on the survey results obtained from various major websites, which basically conforms to the amateur field expenses. Then we can judge that the transaction proportion of this field comparison fee has been seriously unbalanced. Calculate according to the following formula:

V

Water level * Proportion of trading volume * Total trading volume

Result 3 Trading value: 1.25*80%*1=1

Result 1 Trading value: 6.0*12%*1=0.72 Result 0 Trading value: 12.0*8%*1=0.96

According to the above data, from the point of view of the major organizations, if they want to make profits, then such a set-up can also be in line with their interests and operational efficiency.

So based on this idea, and then the water level and probability of independent accounting, and then according to the two before and after the calculation of the trading value, and then from different transactions to find out the difference. According to

The return rate Q90% of this game is calculated again, namely:

Actual water level =90%- probability

Water level in Result 3:90%-75%=1.20

Result 1 Water level: 90%=15.62%=5.76

Level 0:90%-9.38%=9.59

After recalculating, it is concluded that:

Result 3 trading value: 1.20×80%=0.96

v,

Result 1 trading value: 5.76×12%=0.69

Result 0 trading value: 9.59×8%=0.77

Difference of Result 3:0.96:1-0.04 Difference of Result 1:0.69:0.72-0.03

0 difference of results: 0.77:0.96-0.19

Analysis: Through this difference we can find that Manchester United in the amount of yardage

In the severely skewed case, the "true default" of the organization (i.e

We calculate the value of the transaction, this can also be regarded as institutional

Trading bottom line) is 0.96, while the market water level calculation results are 1.00, and the Kelly value published on the index website is 0.94.

Finally, the mass coding factor and institutional factor are integrated

(1+0.96) /2=0.98, that is, the trade value of this game is 0.98. The trade value of 0.98 is obviously higher than the trade value of 0.77 for the win and 0.69 for the game

It was more favorable to the organization, and Manchester United lost in the end.

Tip 1: The order of comparison of differences is: the final calculation minus the initial calculation.

~

Tip 2: The percentage of betting can be realized through the "customer survey" or "betting vane" in some domestic and foreign football lottery websites. The author's approach is usually to make an average proportion of the survey proportion of 2-3 companies, which can better represent the universality of annotations.

The basic information and professional terms are credited by a professional soccer betting player in Shanghai

Total hour:7