Self Evaluation

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5/11 Blog

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5/23 Blog

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Still Some Math…… What is the pumping logic of the lottery company? This is beneficial to understand how this machine works. Simply put, what is needed to take a chance in the football lottery and achieve long-term success is to be able to identify bets with positive expectations -- bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. So your goal is not to win every bet, but to make decisions that have positive expectations. As an example, for today's AC Milan v Roma match, one company's odds are now 1.87, 3.40, 4.20. We can calculate the implied probability of winning, drawing and losing is 53.48% respectively 29.41% 23.81%. At this time, we will find that the three probability and 53.48%+29.41%+23.81%=106.7% , HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE？ It is actually more than 100%. The 6.7 per cent extra is actually the lottery company's pumping (aka "margin"). That means the lottery company has a theory of 6.7 percent on the odds Commission pumping. So if we take tha...
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5/20 Blog

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 Kelly's exponents According to commodity transaction formula: transaction quantity * transaction unit price = total transaction price. So let's look at the elements of the trade in the color industry, if we put water The level is compared to the trading price, and the number of bets investors make on the three levels of 3/1/0 is the trading volume. That is: number of bets * water level = total transaction value of bets. Then we can find through this formula, when we can grasp the betting volume of each major institution, we can know their trading value. However, we do not know the actual amount of trading bets made by each major institution, which is an absolute trade secret. Now there is a popular formula, which is based on publicly available data. That is: Let's say our principal is all 1 So Kelly's formula: Water level of Result 3 * Probability of Result 3 % *= Total compensation of Result 3 Result 1 Water level * Result 1 Probability %*- Organization reimburses Res...
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