Self Evaluation

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5/23 Blog

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Still Some Math…… What is the pumping logic of the lottery company? This is beneficial to understand how this machine works. Simply put, what is needed to take a chance in the football lottery and achieve long-term success is to be able to identify bets with positive expectations -- bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. So your goal is not to win every bet, but to make decisions that have positive expectations. As an example, for today's AC Milan v Roma match, one company's odds are now 1.87, 3.40, 4.20. We can calculate the implied probability of winning, drawing and losing is 53.48% respectively 29.41% 23.81%. At this time, we will find that the three probability and 53.48%+29.41%+23.81%=106.7% , HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE？ It is actually more than 100%. The 6.7 per cent extra is actually the lottery company's pumping (aka "margin"). That means the lottery company has a theory of 6.7 percent on the odds Commission pumping. So if we take tha...
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Weekend Reflection

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5/18 Blog

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  Gambling on soccer  can have a negative impact on an individual's health status.  Here is my first experience with gambling during the World Cup 2022.  Point 1: Betting on soccer can be very mentally taxing. My first bet was on the Japan vs. Germany game, and out of support for the Asian team and trust in the Japanese team, I earned close to seven times my winnings, or about $35 USD, with five US dollars capital. It made me feel like I might be able to make some money through this means of entertainment , after all it turned me from a neutral fan to a purposeful fan in many games and the game became exciting.  However the side effect starts to appear, I would become restless or anxious when a goal had not been scored during the game. I have also seen some players in some software/app cursing at the team and even insulting soccer because they lost money. This has deviated from my original intention of watching the game, however, at that time, I only thought ...
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