5/22 Blog

 Conclusion 1: Our understanding of football is to our disadvantage?

 In fact, the percentage of fans in the trading department of any lottery company is very small, which itself shows that sports knowledge and the ability to think about sports probabilistically are actually unrelated.

On the contrary, fan groups tend to distort their judgments and decisions based on preconceived notions. Of course, this is not to say that knowledge accumulation is useless, but it can be beneficial if used correctly. Take myself as an example, I often choose blindly because I believe in my home team too much（Argentina and Chelsea）, without any rational analysis during this period. In fact, the success of soccer sports is more dependent on precise mathematical models and experience, the knowledge of football itself can be misleading in many cases. While there are a few people who can make steady money from soccer, the job, or the profession itself, is very difficult for the vast majority of people, and the number of players who can actually make money over the long term is very small. What's more, even for long-term monetising players, the process of monetising, including the ultimate rate of return, is not what many people think it is.

Due to irrationality and overconfidence, many people underestimate the difficulty of soccer. Many people who buy lottery tickets think it's a test of your knowledge of the game. But the truth is, just because you have a great knowledge of football doesn't translate into an ability to make money betting on the sport. As Taleb writes in Anti-Vulnerability: Benefiting from Uncertainty, "It is not rigorous to equate practical skills with theoretical skills."

Total Hour（on plane）4