statistics

     This week I performed some mathematical analysis, in addition to which I showed the harm and addictive nature that gambling brings. Betting on soccer is inherently exciting and exhilarating, and participants often experience an irresistible sense of tension and pleasure in gambling. This sense of excitement can release large amounts of dopamine, leading to a strong sense of satisfaction, leading to the pursuit of more betting behavior. Over time, people will gradually lose their rational perception of risks and consequences, forming a strong psychological dependence from which they cannot extricate themselves.      Secondly, betting on soccer is a kind of gambling, which can cause huge economic losses to individuals and families. Betting on soccer is a high-risk investment behavior, and participants are often attracted by the possibility of making profits, but in fact, most people will eventually lose their money. The increased stakes and frequency that often accompany bettin

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Still Some Math…… What is the pumping logic of the lottery company? This is beneficial to understand how this machine works. Simply put, what is needed to take a chance in the football lottery and achieve long-term success is to be able to identify bets with positive expectations -- bets that have a greater chance of winning than the odds suggest. So your goal is not to win every bet, but to make decisions that have positive expectations. As an example, for today's AC Milan v Roma match, one company's odds are now 1.87, 3.40, 4.20. We can calculate the implied probability of winning, drawing and losing is 53.48% respectively 29.41% 23.81%. At this time, we will find that the three probability and 53.48%+29.41%+23.81%=106.7% , HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE？ It is actually more than 100%. The 6.7 per cent extra is actually the lottery company's pumping (aka "margin"). That means the lottery company has a theory of 6.7 percent on the odds Commission pumping. So if we take tha

 Conclusion 1: Our understanding of football is to our disadvantage?  In fact, the percentage of fans in the trading department of any lottery company is very small, which itself shows that sports knowledge and the ability to think about sports probabilistically are actually unrelated. On the contrary, fan groups tend to distort their judgments and decisions based on preconceived notions . Of course, this is not to say that knowledge accumulation is useless, but it can be beneficial if used correctly. Take myself as an example, I often choose blindly because I believe in my home team too much（Argentina and Chelsea）, without any rational analysis during this period. In fact, the success of soccer sports is more dependent on precise mathematical models and experience, the knowledge of football itself can be misleading in many cases. While there are a few people who can make steady money from soccer, the job, or the profession itself, is very difficult for the vast majority of people, and

 Section/Factor 2  Profit and loss index analysis Both profit and loss and Kelly Index are based on the analysis of the proportion of the public trading , to analyze the profit model of each large institution. Compared with the latter, the former gives stronger and more direct feedback to the profit situation of the institution. The process of calculating the profit index is actually the process of the cost accounting of the institution. I. Important parameters of profit and loss analysis This parameter is the proportion of public transactions of win, draw and lose results. According to this important parameter, the calculation formula of profit and loss index analysis can be solved. Ii. Profit and Loss index calculation formula The calculation formula of profit and loss index is actually a copy of the financial accounting model of most organizations. The specific formula is as follows: For example, 20100504 (This is the date of game) Wolfsburg vs. Hoffenheim (Background info: Wolfsb

 Kelly's exponents According to commodity transaction formula: transaction quantity * transaction unit price = total transaction price. So let's look at the elements of the trade in the color industry, if we put water The level is compared to the trading price, and the number of bets investors make on the three levels of 3/1/0 is the trading volume. That is: number of bets * water level = total transaction value of bets. Then we can find through this formula, when we can grasp the betting volume of each major institution, we can know their trading value. However, we do not know the actual amount of trading bets made by each major institution, which is an absolute trade secret. Now there is a popular formula, which is based on publicly available data. That is: Let's say our principal is all 1 So Kelly's formula: Water level of Result 3 * Probability of Result 3 % *= Total compensation of Result 3 Result 1 Water level * Result 1 Probability %*- Organization reimburses Res